For a lot of Gulf Coast businesses, the fourth quarter is an odd mix. The P&L says the year is going fine, yet the bank balance keeps getting tighter. The reason is timing, and a simple cash forecast is the best tool we know for seeing it coming.
## Why Q4 squeezes cash
Several things tend to stack up in the last quarter of the year:
• Seasonal businesses spend ahead of their busy months. In Southwest Florida, that often means hiring, training and stocking up in October and November for a season that pays off in winter.
• Year-end costs cluster: holiday payroll, bonuses, insurance renewals, annual software subscriptions.
• Customers pay more slowly as their own year end gets busy.
• The fourth-quarter estimated tax payment comes due January 15.
None of this is unusual. The problem is when it lands in the same few weeks without warning.
It’s common enough to show up in national data. In the Federal Reserve’s 2026 Report on Employer Firms, meeting operating expenses was the most common reason small employers sought financing, cited by 56% of those that did.
## The 13-week cash forecast
A 13-week forecast covers one quarter, week by week. It’s short enough to be accurate and long enough to give you time to act.
1. Start with today’s real cash balance, not the balance in your accounting software if the accounts aren’t reconciled.
2. List expected cash in, by week. Use when customers actually pay, not the invoice due date. If a client typically pays in 45 days, forecast 45 days.
3. List cash out, by week: payroll on its real schedule, rent, loan payments, inventory orders, subscriptions, and the January 15 estimated tax payment.
4. Carry the balance forward each week and look for the low points.
A spreadsheet is enough. The habit matters more than the tool.
## Build your seasonality in
If your year has a busy season and a slow one, the forecast has to show it. Look at the same weeks last year: when deposits picked up, when they dropped, and how long the gap was between spending for season and getting paid for it. Last year’s bank statements are often the most honest record you have.
## What to do about a tight week
The forecast’s job is to show you the problem while there are still options:
• Invoice sooner, or ask for deposits on larger jobs
• Follow up on anything past 30 days before it reaches 60
• Move a discretionary purchase back a few weeks
• Talk to your bank about a line of credit before you need it, not during the week you need it
Each of these is easy six weeks out and hard six days out.
## Make it a weekly habit
Update the forecast once a week. Replace last week’s estimate with what actually happened, and add a new week at the end. Once it’s set up, that takes a few minutes. Over a few months your estimates get sharper and the surprises get smaller.
## Share it with the people who move the numbers
When the people who send invoices and approve spending can see the forecast, decisions improve on their own. A tight week in December becomes a shared problem to plan around, not the owner’s private worry.
## The bigger picture
A seasonal business will always have uneven months. The goal isn’t to smooth them out. It’s to stop being surprised by them, and a forecast you update every week does exactly that.
If you’d like help setting up a 13-week forecast for your business, it’s work we do with advisory clients. Book a time at kyma-advisors.com.